Prepare For A Protracted Middle East War
No, I do not think even Khamenei's death, if true, will change the fact that Iran Risk Is Not Priced In
Arab Spring 2.0
Wars Are Inflationary
Prepare For A Protracted Middle East War
Oil Shocks Are Inflationary And Recessionary
Bulls Are Bullish Wars
Regime Change Wars Are Not Easy To Win
Final Thoughts: Israel’s Global Doctrine of Fragmentation
Arab Spring 2.0
US-Israel have attacked Iran Saturday February 28th, 2026, in what will likely envelop the region in a Middle East War that can quickly lead to Arab Spring 2.0.
I warned IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN two weeks ago setting up for clients how to protect.
And then last week: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In, Still.
Then Friday morning live and in this Weekend Risk client post:
“I’m racing to write this up before the weekend because I had originally worried that escalation could time closer to March Options Expiry (20th), but for the reasons above, I suggested this morning live that it would be smarter to protect now.
Better to be safe than sorry, out of an abundance of caution, and because it just doesn’t pass the mom smell test.”
Even before this news, last Sunday I sized up my thesis: “Bounce Then Trounce”
With that, here’s why I warned months ago that I saw volatility emerging March-to-May timeframe, and also why I repeated past few months that the Growth-To-Value rotation that I sized up in NOVEMBER would likely peter out in FEBRUARY, and that IN LIEU OF SECTOR ROTATION THERE WILL BE VOLALITY
Now reports by ISRAEL are that Khamenei is dead. If true, and I don’t believe a word that comes out of Trump or Netanyahu’s mouth, it will not change the fact that Iran Risk Is Not Priced In.
Wars Are Inflationary
And here we are:
Iran warns "no ship" is allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in response to US and Israel attacks.
Oil has jumped nearly 12%, as predicted, with $75 crude target on signs of escalation and threats of Strait of Hormuz closing.
What happens now?
Our Geoffrey warns:
The West can absolutely not afford a spike in oil.
Remember that the US is monetizing its deficit today, has inflation already above target with a low oil price.
An inflation spike would make the interest portion of the deficit moon and interest to tax receipts moon.
BTW: Our Geoffrey, prior Portfolio Manager, is up 25% YTD.
Geoffrey shares his trades/analysis with clients in our LaDucTrading portfolios
Given 20% of the world’s seaborn oil and all of Qatar’s LNG exports are being turned away, how long before our supply chains and oil-based economies around the world start to feel it and pass along the higher prices to consumers?
Great read by LongYield
