Playing The Limbo
For The Week Ahead
[RE: Limbo: Not the dark, disturbing video game that came up in my search while looking for a photo... but the old-school childhood game of shimmying under a horizontal stick belly first. I feel so old explaining that.]
Moving on... here’s what matters, some key levels and trades working in both directions.
Payrolls print Friday morning might cast a long shadow on the market this week.
Wall Street now expects to have added just 49,000 payrolls in April versus 178,000 in March.
Manufacturing ISM Misses As Prices Surge Most Since April 2022, Employment Slides To Worst Print Of 2026
Yes, that miss is why NFP is expected to disappoint.
A sub-50K print would be the weakest since the post-COVID reopening.
So now the market needs to parse if bad (labor) news is good news for rate cut enthusiasts.
At the very least, don’t be surprised to see some repricing of Fed rate expectations on a falling print.
Sunday, Trump ordered US Navy to escort cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz in “Operation Freedom” which is a oxymoron to justify escalation on Iran retaliation (which is inevitable) to further Trump-Netanyahu’s “Operation Epic Fury” war on Iran, Lebanon, etc.
Then, this morning, this news hit just when I closed my trading room:
Al Jazeera just reported a major escalation. Two missiles hit a US warship near Lask Island after it ignored Iranian warnings.
Earlier, the commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbia Joint Coordination Center stated that any US warship entering the Strait of Hormuz would be attacked
Despite clear red lines from Iran, the U.S. pushed forward. @OunkaOnX
l aready reminded my SPX $7191 target/ceiling broke - so now it’s the floor - but is also where we revisit on any sudden news of escalation.
