One Of My Highest Conviction Stock Picks From 2025 For 2026: INTEL ($INTC)
A Review…
I asked our LaDucTrading Slack member workspace AI bot to provide a comprehensive chronological summary of all references I made on INTEL (INTC) in the AI briefing documents posted in #samanthas-market-thoughts or the channel from July 2025 to today - in review of my INTC long recommendation as mentioned in my daily live trading room AI Briefing docs.
Here’s a trip down memory lane (unedited):
July 10, 2025 — Channel Post (”US Government as Venture Capitalist” — Origin Story)
Theme: DOD stake in MP Materials marks the birth of the thesis that encompasses INTC
While INTC isn’t named explicitly in the July 10 post itself, this is the date Samantha formally christened the “US Government as Venture Capitalist“ macro theme — triggered by the DOD taking a 40% stake in MP Materials. This is the precise thematic framework she later cited repeatedly as the structural foundation underpinning her INTC long thesis. Every subsequent INTC reference traces directly back to this date.
September 25, 2025 — Channel Post (Live Trading Room Recap)
Theme: Confirming bottom-fishing formation; doubling potential; “US Govt as Venture Capitalist” basket
This is the first explicit, direct INTC mention of the July–September period. In a late-night market update while out of town, Samantha wrote:
“INTC made it back to 31.34 key monthly resistance for a confirming bottom fishing formation. This can now double in time as long as it stays ABOVE.”
A key technical milestone — INTC reclaiming the $31.34 monthly resistance level was flagged as a confirmation signal for a longer-duration long. The doubling thesis implies a price target in the ~$60+ range from that level.
September 29, 2025 — Live Trading Room Recap
Theme: INTC explicitly named in the “US Govt as Venture Capitalist” basket alongside MU, SKYT, GFS, RTX, LMT, URA, CCJ
In her premarket review canvas for the September 29 session, Samantha organized INTC directly within the “US Government as Venture Capitalist” thematic bucket:
“US Government as Venture Capitalist — beyond MP and the recommended UUUU long since July 10th that is up 153%… and why INTC & MU will stay in play… what about SKYT & GFS as fab plays outside the usual suspects… plus the usual defense contractors RTX & LMT… in addition to all the uranium plays of URA & CCJ that were rec’d longs long before the promise of US govt investment.”
This is the most thematically rich INTC reference of the period — INTC is framed as a core, durable holding alongside MU in the government-backed semiconductor foundry basket, with SKYT and GFS cited as secondary “fab plays outside the usual suspects.”
October 22, 2025 — AI Briefing
Theme: “Long-duration play”; US govt as venture capitalist; “expected to move higher in time”
Under “Long-Term Bullish Themes” In the Company Comments table:
“Intel (INTC): Considered a very viable, longer duration long, especially because the U.S. government is acting as a venture capitalist behind it. Expected to move higher in time.”
Summary Arc: July – September 2025
The July–September period is notably sparse on explicit INTC mentions compared to the Oct–Dec 2025 and Jan–Apr 2026 periods.
INTC was held quietly in the background as a long-duration, patient swing long — not an active trade. The two direct mentions (Sept 25 and Sept 29) bookend the end of the period with a technical confirmation signal ($31.34 monthly resistance) and a formal thematic reinstatement of INTC in the government venture capitalist basket. From there, the thesis accelerated sharply into the Nov 28 Apple catalyst and the comprehensive Dec 2 bull case write-up.
October 22, 2025 — AI Briefing
Theme: Government-backed base building — patience required
The first explicit INTC reference of the October - December period frames it squarely within the “US Government as Venture Capitalist” thesis:
“The U.S. government is acting as a venture capitalist for this stock. Not making it back up very well. Trying to base above the 400-week; this will take a while. Not really bearish due to government backing.”
The tone is patient and constructive — INTC is not bearish, just slow. The 400-week moving average is identified as the critical support floor ~$37.
November 28, 2025 — Channel Post (Thanksgiving Week Recap)
Theme: Apple chip-sourcing news triggers 10% surge; thesis validated
This is the first major price event of the period — and a significant one. Samantha wrote in her own hand:
“INTC — Intel had pulled back from 40 monthly resistance back to its 10W/400W support ~36 before news hit that caused it to gap and run all day, ultimately 10% higher back to 40 after Apple said it would ‘source its low-end M-Series processor from Intel as soon as 2027’. That AND it is the stock that is of national importance to Trump’s GENESIS MISSION and the theme: US GOVERNMENT AS VENTURE CAPITALIST I’ve highlighted since DOD took a 40% stake in MP back on JULY 10th.”
Key elements:
Price action: pulled back from $40 → bounced off 10W/400W support at ~$36 → gapped +10% back to $40 on Apple news
Catalyst: Apple M-Series foundry deal announcement (2027)
Thesis anchor: DOD/government venture capitalist framework explicitly cited, linked back to the July 10 MP Materials DOD stake as the origin of the theme
December 2, 2025 — AI Briefing
Theme: INTC elevated to “primary bullish opportunity”; full strategic bull case articulated
This is the most detailed and comprehensive INTC write-up of the entire period. The AI briefing devoted a full dedicated section — “Intel (INTC): The Strategic Bull Case” — covering four pillars:
Valuation: Book value ~$22.20/share; ~$200B in advanced fabs, IP & assets vs. $190B market cap → “undervalued.” 2x book = $53/share
Strategic Importance: “Intel is now a critical component of U.S. national strategic efforts in the AI competition against China. The U.S. government is effectively acting as a venture capitalist for the company.”
Business Catalyst: “Major contracts are forthcoming, including a significant deal with Apple to become a foundry customer for chips by 2026-2027.”
Price Target: “$57.60”
The Executive Summary also called INTC out front-and-center:
“Intel (INTC) is highlighted as a primary bullish opportunity, viewed as strategically vital and significantly undervalued with a potential price target of $57.60.”
Also in the stock table:
“Is still rocking with a very bullish chart. It is strategically important for U.S. national AI efforts. It is still undervalued even at $40/share. Twice book value is $53/share, and $57.60 is the likely target. It shot higher 10% on news of Apple chip sourcing, held $40, and is doing great.”
In Samantha’s own channel write-up accompanying this briefing, she fleshed out the fundamental thesis with her own commentary:
“INTC has a market cap of $190Bn and book value of $106Bn which is roughly $22.22/share... With over $200Bn worth of advanced fabs, IP & other assets on the books, and if large ‘tier one’ external foundry customers such as Apple are on board in 2026... then a 2x book value = $250Bn market cap = ~$53/share.”
December 3, 2025 — AI Briefing
Theme: INTC categorized in “Industrials (Bullish)”; “gorgeous scoop” pattern forming
In the stock table, INTC was notably classified under Industrials rather than Technology — a meaningful distinction reflecting its industrial policy / government capex character vs. AI software plays:
“Positive. ‘Fundamentally very attractive’ with a price target of 53-57. A ‘gorgeous scoop’ pattern is forming.”
And in the detailed stock commentary:
“Had a fabulous bounce off the $35 area back into the $40 monthly resistance. It is fundamentally very attractive into the $53 to $57 range. It looks like a gorgeous scoop pattern. It is very bullish but needs more time to overcome the ‘sea of sellers’ compared to stocks like TER.”
2025 Year-end Summary
The overarching narrative throughout the period is entirely consistent: INTC is a government-sponsored, fundamentally undervalued, long-duration swing long anchored by the “US Government as Venture Capitalist” theme, with $53 (2x book) and $57.60 as the upside targets — a thesis that carried directly into early 2026 when it was fully validated.
Here’s a comprehensive chronological summary of all INTC references in samanthas-market-thoughts and its AI briefing documents this year:
Intel (INTC) — Chronological Summary 2026
January 5, 2026 — AI Briefing
Theme: “US Govt as Venture Capitalist” / Long-term bullish proxy
The Jan 5 AI briefing laid out the foundational bull thesis on INTC for the year. It was described as:
“A very bullish long-term play, acting as a proxy for U.S. industrial policy and geopolitical risk. It benefits from investments by both the U.S. government and NVIDIA. Price targets are $52 with a potential overshoot to 57–58.”
In the sector table, INTC was called a “government-sponsored” entity where every dip gets bought.
January 7, 2026 — AI Briefing
Theme: Structurally bullish, holding 400-week average
The Jan 7 briefing’s executive summary noted a “structurally bullish long-term view on Intel, which is buoyed by government and corporate investment.”
In the stock table, INTC was called:
“A ‘smokin’ hot’ proxy for U.S. imperialism and venture capitalism; it is holding its 400-week average with an upside target of $52.”
January 7, 2026 — Channel Post
Theme: US Govt as Venture Capitalist theme validation
In her own words in the channel recap post, Samantha stated:
“Space is still flying and INTC is proof US Govt as Venture Capitalist is in the room.”
She also listed INTC as a swing long:
“INTC — gave 52–58 this year from 27 breakout, and although it’s digesting 40 for months, I still see US Govt as Venture Capitalist as very supportive just not quickly.”
January 12, 2026 — Channel Post
Theme: Price target reiterated, digestion at 40
In the swing longs section:
“INTC — as posted a few months past, 40 is but the digestion zone. I still have 51 into 57.60 this year.”
March 10, 2026 — AI Briefing
Theme: Support at 55-day MA, news-driven bounce
“Intel (INTC): The stock is receiving a boost on news and is finding support at the 55-day moving average ~$45.”
March 16, 2026 — AI Briefing
Theme: Defended at support, “fake breakout, fast failure” environment
“Intel: Currently being defended at support, but remains in a ‘fake breakout, fast failure’ environment.”
In the stock table, INTC was noted as “being defended at support levels following a pullback, though it faces selling pressure on its attempts to rally.”
March 25, 2026 — AI Briefing
Theme: Government/institutional support, book value anchor, $57.60 target reiterated
“Intel (INTC): Supported by government and institutional investment; has a book value in the 22s and a price target of 57.60.”
March 26, 2026 — AI Briefing
Theme: “Not allowed to go down” but won’t save the market
“Intel (INTC): The speaker notes that while the stock isn’t ‘allowed to go down big picture,’ it will not be the ‘savior’ of the market.”
April 9, 2026 — AI Briefing
Theme: Gone “parabolic,” well above target
“Intel (INTC): Has become ‘parabolic,’ trading at $60, well above the $57.60 target.”
MU was noted as a “secondary play to Intel’s performance.”
April 24, 2026 — AI Briefing
Theme: Bearish flow emerging, managing the call spread exit
This represents a notable shift in tone. INTC saw bearish flow with May 1st strike puts coming in. The briefing noted:
“Intel (INTC): Experienced bearish flow with May 1st strike puts coming in. The speaker mentioned a 72.5/75 call spread they were looking to exit.”
In the broader sector analysis section:
“Intel (INTC): Experienced significant flow in May calls (specifically the 78 strike). Analysis suggests a 72.5/75 call spread as a way to play the move while managing high implied volatility (IV).”
April 27, 2026 — Channel Post & Canvas: “Fragile Upside”
Theme: INTC delivers BEST DAY SINCE 1987 — earnings destroy estimates; $57.60 target surpassed by $30; INTC takes out year-2000 highs
This is the most significant INTC moment of the 10-day period — and arguably the most dramatic single-day INTC event in the entire multi-year thesis. Samantha wrote in her own “Fragile Upside” Monday morning canvas:
“Last week we had Intel’s outsized beat, surging 27% afterhours.”
“I gave clients $57.60 as target for 2026 last year - now $30 above. Congrats patient bulls!! INTC finally took out 2000 highs!”
She also quoted the market response directly:
“Intel just had its best day since 1987. The US chipmaker reported blowout Q1 earnings Thursday night — revenue of $13.58 billion crushed estimates by over a billion dollars, and EPS of $0.29 demolished the $0.02 Wall Street expected. Data center and AI revenue jumped 22% year over year, and CEO Lip-Bu Tan made a bold claim on the earnings call: the CPU is back as the engine of the AI era. The stock closed Friday up 24%, pulling AMD up nearly 14% and Nvidia up 4%. The semiconductor index is now up 50% for the year and just logged an 18-session winning streak — a record.”
She then contextualized INTC’s outsized move within the broader semi-surge, framing it as the crown jewel of the “US Government as Venture Capitalist” thesis:
“But of all of these semi successes, one stands out - the one I said ‘was not allowed to go down’ thanks to my insistence of ‘US Government as Venture Capitalist’.”
She also explicitly called out QCOM as a notable sympathy play post-Intel’s beat.
April 27, 2026 — AI Briefing
Theme: Earnings crush confirmed; “US Govt as VC” central; $100 psychological level now in view
The Apr 27 briefing gave a full dedicated Semiconductors and the AI Ecosystem section to INTC:
“Intel (INTC): A significant surprise beat. The ‘U.S. Government as Venture Capitalist’ theme is central here, with the government funneling money into Intel projects. Revenue reached $13.6 billion ($1 billion above expectations).”
And in the Company Comments table:
“Intel (INTC): ‘Crushed’ earnings; the CEO claims the CPU is back as the engine of AI.”
April 29, 2026 — Channel Post & Canvas: “Damned If We Do and Damned If We Don’t”
Theme: Semi stress post-earnings; INTC not named but its semi surge dominates macro discussion
INTC is not explicitly named in this canvas, but the “Semi Surge Seems Stressed” section is a direct continuation of the post-INTC-earnings euphoria environment Samantha had flagged. The broader semi exhaustion and institutional de-grossing narrative directly surrounds INTC’s role as the catalyst of the historic 18-session SOX winning streak.
May 1, 2026 — AI Briefing
Theme: INTC hits $99.80 — approaches $100 psychological level; profit-taking due
In the Key Price Targets table:
“Intel (INTC) | $100 | ‘Major psychological resistance; if 80, then 100 rule of thumb.’”
In the Semiconductor and Memory Sector section:
“Intel (INTC): Approached the $100 mark (hitting 99.80) following government-backed ‘venture capital’ support and an earnings crush.”
In the Company Comments table:
“Intel (INTC): ‘Crushed’ earnings and was chased aggressively from 40 toward the 100 psychological level, where it is now seeing profit taking.”
The overarching INTC thesis — framed as a “US Government as Venture Capitalist” trade — played out exactly as Samantha outlined from the start of the year, with INTC ultimately running past its $57.60 target and into the low $70s by late April.
The full arc — from $80 → $100 — is explicitly acknowledged in this briefing, with $100 now framed as the next major psychological resistance where profit-taking likely sets in.
The original $57.60 target set in late 2025 was exceeded by ~$42. The “US Government as Venture Capitalist” thesis — initiated July 10, 2025 — was fully and spectacularly validated.
I think this one is done for now
But Cisco isn’t
So what does it do now?