From My Notes. Detailed AI Briefing Follows Below.
REVERSION TO MEAN trades as warned TUES OCT 14th for MINERS, METALS & MINERALS is in full view NOW!! And that included the very overbought ZERO DOLLAR CLUB plays like ASTS, IONQ, USAR, etc
GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, PLG, PALL, XME are in round 2 of the metals sell off I warned early & often about.
XME - part of the metals sell off as warned 2 wks ago - 105.76 to 101.45 to 99 - 93 potential overshoot.
TLT - long a bond bounce since Sept with Nov 90x95 call spread; expected 10Y will fall into 3.9% but not break below.
YEN -weakness on new Japanese PM = USDJPY into 153.28; FXY into 59.90
USD -strength triggering > 99.40 as warned & in advance of metal selling off in size.
Nat Gas - bid as expected into EOY; EQT still pushing higher with spot.
SPX - tagged 6735; VIX fell into 17.50 area as reviewed last wk once inside 25.20 as predicted.
GM - BEST CHASE into 64.30 which then ran to 67.55!!
MMM - doing well post earnings saying they are digesting tariffs well, so bullish chase > 160 which turned into 166!!
CLF - warned yday that big mouth CEO pushed it too far, too fast & warned to watch for gap fill lower into “13 area” from 16.50 before seeing how it gets defended. It tagged 13.16 today at its 21D.
XHB - still not bullish even after bounce into 110 on PHM earnings intraday reversal red-to-green.
PEP - forming massive inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on wkly that NEEDS to get/stay > 160 to turn into trend reversal higher. KO better positioned than PEP on tariff front given “PepsiCo is more affected by tariffs because it manufactures most of its U.S. soda concentrate in Ireland, which is subject to a 10% import tariff.
FLR- Starboard stake sent it up to 52 but settled under 49. Needs to get/stay > 50.47 to push into 56. Fave Trend Long since 2020/21!
ASTS - tagged 102.79 423.6 Fib level when warned it was likely a parabola that will fall into D: 82.87 then 73.94; W support at 77.66 then 64.86. In play. Fave Trend long since Feb.
CRM - chase long last week on Investor Day & $6B stock buyback; has now risen from 245 trigger past 261.90 PT into 267 at 50W resistance.
ADBE, TEAM, DOCU etc - Software got a bid today this week but has much to prove…
Since 1971, there has been a NASDAQ Yearend Rally 98.1% of the time, and its average advance has been a solid 13.2%. If we do run higher, these software plays could very well catch a bid with the reversion-to-mean pullback plays above.
Place Your Bets!!
