We Got That 100pt SPX Drop Warned Wed. Double Or Nothing?
I did warn Wed that I did not expect SPX to get/stay above 6807. It was firmly rejected Wed and opened weak today before falling 1.12% intraday - to and through my target & gamma flip level of 6749.
Obviously, VIX & TAIL risk are bid as Growth/Tech got hit with Consumer Lending/Spending stocks. This has played out as warned.
In case you missed it, here is a review of all the reasons I detailed for why MARKET IS GETTING NERVOUS.
Here are a few more just from the past 24 hours - post beat-down of Republicans in the elections Tues:
Challenger jobs data: “Oct. job cuts totaled 153,074, up 183% from Sept. and 175% YoY. It was the highest level for any Oct. since 2003 and the most in any fourth-quarter month since 2008. 1.1 million cuts have been announced this year, a 65% YoY increase and the most since the COVID pandemic in 2020.”
Nvidia’s CEO commented how strongly China has pulled ahead, stating that they “will win AI race with US. Something I’ve been warning about since my Jan post: THIS IS THE MANHATTAN PROJECT 2.0
WSJ OpenAI story about why Sam Altman could need US taxpayers to guarantee their debt. It has not been well received needless to say.
Translation: GROWTH SCARE in full view. And our shorts prove it clearly:
Swing Shorts:
ORCL long awaited swing short from Wed Sept 10th at 339.69 into “NOT IF JUST WHEN” 243.49 finally tagged TODAY!! Congrats shorts!!
TMUS swing short also still in play with one of my fave trend reversal patterns post gap down on wkly below 248, breaking 208 target on way to 190 soon.
CVNA swing short into 292.84 target with 50W right below at 288 where it’s headed next.
RCL swing short through target of 258.70 after it gapped below its 200D at 275.
UPST swing short (of Geoffrey’s) didn’t slow at 40 but continued right into my updated target of 37.
SOFI finally dumped, down 10% today - right through trigger of 28.26 approaching 55D at 26.95 - this one has lots of room to go.
CONSUMER LENDING SECTOR IS IN TROUBLE stocks were down strongly mid-day - but keep in mind this report was published end of Sept, so these are very, very successful swing shorts across the board!
