Massive Mobilization: US Ground Troops
Pray for our troops!
Yes, I know market has a ‘right tail rally’ look, but I still warn early, often and loudly: KNOW WHAT YOU OWN.
We may be having a short-covering rally on Trump’s market manipulation, but understand, there is NO ceasefire.
Malcolm Nance is saying, “Look at the units deploying. This is going to happen and like rapid.”
There is a HUGE Special Operations Deployment arriving in the Mid East.
The seizure of Kharg and Hormuz Island is almost 100% going ahead.
We don’t deploy this for nothing.
Army Ch-47 Helicopters
160th SOAR MH-60 helicopters
Units fm:
Both 1st & 2nd Batt 75th Rangers
5th SF Group
US Army Delta Force
SEAL TEAM-6
Centcom task force
USAF 621st “Devil Raiders” contingency response team (runway repair)
82nd Airborne already likely deployed.
Ovda Airbase in Israel is near the Elat on the Red Sea and is empty & full of hard shelters.
King Faisal in Al-Jafr Jordan is a huge base used by USSOF before. It’s close to KATSOC training facility for work ups.
With Tripoli MEU inchopping the Gulf of Oman on Friday this is a huge force for multiple Islands & locations, not just Kharg.
They intend to take and repair one runway (Kharg).
This force is not leverage. This is a commitment to take action.
By extending the ultimatum by 5 days, Trump is simply buying time for US ground troops to position for the next phase of this war.
The deadline Trump set for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is Friday.
The 2,200 Marines of the 31st MEU arrive in CENTCOM on Friday.
The USS Tripoli and USS New Orleans dock the same day.
Anything can happen: US Kharg Island assault, Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz, etc
But the sad truth is, as Malcolm sums up well:
“the likelihood that the war won’t end until Pete Hegseth and Trump get a ground action worthy of a Michael Bay movie...”
And you KNOW, Trump will declare victory - regardless of how this plays out.
And you KNOW, markets can be fooled and manipulated and rally.
But eventually, fundamentals will matter and SPX will fill that May 12th birthday rally I have been spying for months now.
Focus on the macro impact on dollar and yields.
Especially, the JGB 10Y yield.
This Japanese paper can turn widow-maker as fuel shortages grow around the globe.
The theatre of war is about to expand.
The British empire ended on the banks of the Suez Canal.
Some expound that the American empire could end at the banks of Hormoz.
I am unable to expound on that.
But I do see a very dangerous BULLWHIP effect taking shape of much higher prices that trigger demand destruction on top of the supply disruption.
There isn’t a recent playbook for that.
And a failed US invasion can pull that thesis forward - along with a global energy crisis made worse and recession.