Macro-to-Micro Power Hour: Bond Bulls Must Defend Here
Macro-to-Micro Power Hour: Bond Bulls Must Defend Here
We absolutely did not waste folk's time.
Here is a very concise analysis of the most pressing macro-to-micro event risks facing the market now and into EOQ.
This was our 1st Spaces! We decided to see how this public format would work over Zoom webinar.
Craig nailed every question with deep subject-matter expertise and a balanced view of the bull/bear side. All in one hour! NO fluff. NO filler.
EXCELLENT CONTENT CRAIG!
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1dRJZMYVbZvGB?s=20
Highlights Covered:
NVDA after hours - seriously, is there a bigger sentiment tell than this AI behemoth? Are we finally at a point to say we 'bought the rumor' now can we 'sell the news'? I'll set it up for clients tomorrow in our live trading room, right after...
Unemployment Claims premarket Thurs - will this article matter? Half a Million US Jobs at Risk of Vanishing in Payroll Revision https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-22/half-a-million-us-jobs-at-risk-of-vanishing-in-payroll-revision?sref=V6jMetUV
Powell Friday morning - 10Y 'HAD' run sharply into my line in sand of 4.333% then got pushed back exactly at key resistance. A solid push/close above on wkly = 4.7% and equities get repriced.
BOJ - big move in USDJPY which caused a big move in bonds and gold/silver/miners. No, I don't think bonds and precious metals are done going down, but it was a highly expected bounce.
BRICs - de-dollarization debate all week and into the future times perfectly with rising 'debt bomb' worries: The US may be inching closer to triggering the dreaded "debt bomb": https://t.co/SAuO4CIjZA
Debt Ceiling - and what it means to US deficits and fiscal spending. Another potential volatility trigger into Sept 30th showdown.
What are odds that China may do a surprise devaluation - Craig says not high but surely someone expects something as I have recently tracked massive (mostly bullish) options hitting the tape this week in KWEB and related plays. I think the call of China's demise are greatly exaggerated.
Market structure matters to direction so watch negative gamma - serious CTA sell trigger is not until 4287.
Treasury Liquidity - Higher yields = collateral is worth less = less liquidity = market bearish. Craig warns liquidity is waning into EOQ.
UAW vote strongly expected to result in a strike until their wage demands are met - wage inflation / wage spiral narrative continues. Here's my latest on the subject of how Wage Inflation Delayed Recession and what it will take to tip up over.
Given all of the above, it is NOT a great backdrop for a melt-up but a great place to keep protection in place as both Craig and I expect VIX to pop and SPX to drop into September quarter end.
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