Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 2/21/24
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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
Market quiet before nvda earnings today
Need a reason for a dump in the market but so far we are getting defended
COPPUCK curve is getting a little tired so current choppiness isn’t a surprise
Breadth still hasnt rolled over
SPY below 496 we have 494, weak on a evening star reversal, this the level to stay under if we want selling we get back above we are back to bullish moves
QQQ on support
VIX 16.05 target tagged, needs to digest and break above for 16.31 and 17NVDA choppiness, sam has no edge with earnings below 695 at risk for 666 still
SMCI below 742 we have 707 again
AMD below 165 we have 159.6 again, current channel 165-174
MSFT 400 tagged sitting on it , below we have 397.60 but is suppprted thus far
AVGO below 1217 sees 1172 then 1157
TSLA pushed into target at 199.3 and rejected, needs above to be bullish below 195 we get 185,180 againBest chases:
At open said CRWD bounce at 272.63 back above 55D at 277 did work itself back up for $20.
ZS overshoot to 21W bounce at 205 back above 100D support at 207.78 did work itself back up for $10. Can it get back up to 55D near 227 - in time.
Michael's Trading Room Summary
TRADE OF THE WEEK POSTED 02.20.24 PM ... McDonalds.
FOMC minutes come today.
Weighted Dollar / Yields - Closed above (but near) 275. Chopping between 280 / 275 daily.
MAG7 - slightly gapped lower in the premarket. Recovered in the later part of yesterday but still closed down on the day @ the 20-day MA. Under the 10-Day MA.
IWF:IWD - MACD cross-under on the daily. Under the 10 & 20-day MA. Closed off the session lows but still closed bearish. This still suggests adding some puts to the "high fliers"
Intermarket
T2104 - Showing some weakness this week (on the weekly) but not alot. Still above the 55-day MA. Productively climbing higher but with labored effort. Stochastics Hourly is negative = more selling. Still breaking down on hourly... small caps still in distribution
WTI Crude - 80 weekly still shows as a level we need to get through. 75.65 daily is a level that Sam continues to focus on. 78.50 / 75.50 seems to be the current channel.
GOLD - 2030 daily resistance. Starting the 5th green day (5 bar rule...?)
Nat Gas - $1.60 daily seems to be acting as support. Spiking up strongly. Production cuts offered a boost.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - still expecting soggy & not a dollar bull. Hanging out at 104.00$
USDJPY - still chopping about on the daily. Holding the range between 151 and 149.50.
Bonds
TLT - still holding the lows around 92.25 to 93.50 channel on the daily.
TNX - still expecting yields to rise and become a problem later.
ZN (10Y) - 109'16 daily seems to be acting as support. 5 days we have chopped at this level. 110'16 seems to be daily resistance & that becomes our channel.
ZT (2Y) - fell into PT. Still looking for 101 to continue acting as stability.
10Y/2Y spread - expecting -0.60% still ... but holding sideways with a range -0.20 / -0.40. Weekly MACD bullish while daily MACD nearing a zero line
cross-down.
Index
SPX - Sitting on 4975 weekly at the close. Stay under 5002.27 weekly ... or it's "SO BULLISH." Very Bullish above.
SPY - Evening Star reversal.
QQQ - Bearing Engulfing ... "barely..." on the weekly. (0.33¢ ... lol). Under the 21-day MA. Looking to break down 422 (use that is current PT).
VIX - tagged 16.00 hourly.
SVXY - Digested for a while. 102.50 weekly support. Quiet ... inside day. Even if daily 102 gets tagged it's still not broken.
CHASE
AVGO below 1217 we have 1151
MSFT 400 tagged sitting on it , below we have 397.60 but is suppprted thus far.
NVDA still expectin 666
SPY below 496 we have 494, weak on a evening star reversal, this the level to stay under if we want selling we get back above we are back to bullish moves
SPX below 4953 we see 4922,4900
SMCI below 742 we have 707 again
TSLA approaching 199.32 needs to really break that level.
VIX 16.05 approaching needs to break above for 16.31 and 17
ZS puts monetize at 194 and potential bounce area
TREND
CCJ - a LONG - TERM trade (long). May see a fade into the 50-week MA (about 38$ weekly). Would not surprose at all.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Semi's got hit because of NVDA earnnigs threat. China ADR's are rising; news out of China is that Banks can not sell stocks into the open or into the close.
AVGO - weekly 1217 broke. Could see the 10-week... maybe 1151 or 1172 area.
AMD - busted after breaking 174 daily. the end. Cradle formation if / when it gets back below the 10MA.
ACN - if it breaks below 360 it likely comes into the channel & that would be a problem.
AMZN - getting added to the Dow Jones. Stay above 167 if looking for long play.
ANF - looks like $WING.
APA - needs a lot of work to recover.
BUG - below the 10-week. Has to get back above that.
BABA - boring but doing fine. Patience. Still see sellers getting absorbed. May still have weeks to go still... same with $JD. (or FXI).
BMY - forming a base.
CRWD - Bounce at 272 .63 ... could see 285 / 290 before that bounce begins to fade.
CZR - strong turn around daily.
CL - 86.38 weekly resistance. Daily "scoop" pattern. Very nice. Clearly a great looking setup. 82.50 calls look good. Just needs to push above the scoop.
CRSP - needs to take out 86. Still a great trend - swing ... has not done anything wrong.
KWEB - has a lot of work to do.
LI - bouncing like the china plays. Productive.
MSFT - biggest short from last week & it worked. Sitting at 400. MSFT - 397.60 as a PT if it breaks 400
META - soggy. Careful
MCD - Jan Leaps for the "trade of the week" posted in Slack.
MRVL - on the 10-week.
MELI - testing the 21-day. Digesting Sideways as it waits for earnings (tomorrow).
NVDA - Expecting 666 today.
PLTR - extended and got whacked. 21.85 weekly support now in focus.
PANW - crushed.
RNG - getting bought this morning... high IV.
SMCI - $742 hourly needs to break for a move into $707; then break that to 667 (and the 21-day MA).
TOL - a beast
TDOC - took a header.
TSLA - above 196 could give another run. The Hourly 199.32 needs to break to cont higher (could use that is your PT for a short term long play... but would be better above. The 21-day MA needs to be taken out (meaning... get above that).
UPS - not excited about this. (IYT ... trying & JBHT looks like a gap down).
UNG - trying to build a reversal on the weekly.
VRT - they want this one. Trend Reversal once back below 55$. Still fine. Got defended very clearly.
WING - extended & has earnings pushing it around. Weekly 50% (half back) looks to be holding. Gapped under the 8-day MA. Look for a rally back above that for a recovery. Keep it above 298. Even if it DOES come back to the 21-day it seems like it will be supported.
XLP - hanging in there.
XLU - trying to pop on the hourly. Still under the 200-day.
XLE - Get above $86.51 weekly.
ZS - selling off after an earnings miss. Looking for a snap back play up to the 55-day MA.
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