Left Tail Delayed; Right Tail Green Shoots

Left Tail Delayed

This is doubtful:

Trump may declare war on Iran this evening during his State of the Union address to Congress - Israeli media citing a senior U.S official via @YourAnonTV

I wouldn’t doubt that Trump will bring Iran up, but I doubt he will announce a strike against them right now. For one thing, Indian PM Modi is in Israel next 48 hours, so it is not likely the world falls apart over the next few days. Modi departs evening of the 26, the day of the Geneva meetings with Iran.

Then we once again enter a new month and new moon! Yes, apparently it’s a thing: the Blood Red Moon March 3rd, with the “Purim” the day before (Monday). Some speculate that this Israeli holiday - celebrating deliverance from a Persian plot to destroy the Jewish people - would be a likely strike day. I have no idea.

I can see news that China may be supplying supersonic missiles to Iran, even if this would be in direct violation of the UNSC sanctions.

But then so too is it a violation of the UN Charter Core Rule (Article 2(4) to use force against an independent state/sovereign nation - unless under attack, for which there has been none by Iran.

As such, Trump has been warned by many an Arab nation, not to mention Britain and France. Even Tucker Carlson tried to dissuade Trump from moving forward with any military operation against Iran Monday after his shocking interview with US Ambassador Mike Huckabee in Israel last week where Huckabee justified US fighting wars on Israel’s behalf.

Given all the continued movements of US military assets into the region, it would appear Trump is steadfast in proceeding with an action that could easily lead to an Arab Spring 2.0. But it does not appear that a strike is this week. More likely post Ramadan March 18th.

As I warned, crude oil prices have risen and won’t just spike from $65 to $75, but threaten $95 on risks of closure to the Straight to Hormuz. Supply chain disruptions would send a deflation shock to US rates and equities. US dollar would likely bounce as VIX spikes.

There is no remedy to the above save peace. China would be enraged as their #1 supplier of oil is engulfed in a regional war. Russia would likely press their advantage in Ukraine.

So big picture: don't forget to hedge!

Right Tail Green Shoots

But if you are of shorter duration hedges, be alert.
My live trading room focus today was to highlight not the SOTU address tonight by Trump at 9 pm ET, or NVDA earnings Wednesday night, but the right tail opportunity starting to form that could cause a surprise…