July 23, 2025 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades

VIX, SPX, ES, CHINA PLAYS, TM, TTD, MSFT, IBB, VKTX, GEV, JBL, GLW, URA, CCJ, BLDR, AAP, NVO, 10Y

Moving at the Speed of Speculation is the topic for our Wednesday Macro-To-Micro Options Power Hour!

VIX Tags 15.50 ;-)))

Pretty obnoxious I know, but I had high conviction this print was coming since late April/May and wanted to keep clients on the right side of the trade.

A few months months later and the market has done REALLY well - not just off my SPX $4878 short price target from beginning of the year

into the April 9th Trump Policy Intervention reversal

but also from my liquidity tells April 23rd when I gave ES 6125.25 as upside price target from $5383

- all the while repeating how I saw VIX falling into mid-July/Aug.

Well, ES is up 1000 pts from that April 23rd call and VIX does not look going down. Shocking I know! But I did update my VIX target for clients back on June 3rd to 14.58.

So... let's see how much higher SPX can go before we tag that. Because as of right now, I see continued melt-up in stocks, breadth & buying.

And as I have written repeatedly: we NEED a macro trigger to interrupt the mostly-mechanical bullish flows.

TRADE UPDATES - 2 NEW*

China Longs doing really well ;-)))

The US has struck a trade deal with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines and Treasury Secretary Bessent has suggested the August 12 end of the US-China tariff truce will likely be extended next week.