July 21, 2025 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades
USDJPY, FXY, GOLD, 10Y2Y, MSFT, XME, SLV, RKT, MSOS, OPEN, AAPL, AMZN, PANW, CLF, ARM, QCOM, NXPI, ETHUSD.
Double Speak & Other Political Mysteries
Last week we get the fake news that Trump is going to fire Powell then a retracting statement from the White House that it wasn't true.
Then over the weekend, we get a story that Bessent talked Trump out of firing Powell, but then Bessent took to the airwaves to bash the institution itself with #EndTheFed drama. Bond market really needs to grow a pair.
Japanese elections came and went - so too will Prime Minister Ishiba if his party loses power, but for now they narrowly hang on to the upper chamber.
USDJPY got rejected from its 200D for a 5th day in a row, helping FXY (the yen proxy) bounce off its 200D - but neither does a trend reversal make.
Also, Japan's market is closed today so we have to wait a bit.
Regardless, USDJPY above 145 is bullish until it isn't. Yen carry trade unwind vibes are early.
USD is backtracking after that bounce into 98.80 as expected - pushing gold into $3400 - but neither looks trustworthy given USDJPY gyrations.
Ditto with the flattening of the 10Y2Y yield curve back inside the wedge.
Moving at the Speed of Speculation is the topic for our Wednesday Macro-To-Micro Options Power Hour!
Speculative Markets & Other Fundamental Mysteries
Market is still bullish, but in particular will be UNTIL my Growth/Value ratio tops, forms a pattern and rolls over.