July 16, 2025 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades
MU, META, MS, IWM, PGR, GDDY, COST, IBKR, UUUU, ACHR, JOBY, RKLB, RGTI, USDJPY, FXY, ETH, BTC, NVDA, VLO, SPX, ES, 10Y2Y
Capped Upside
Jason from Vol.Land in our LaDucTrading Slack member workspace posted this morning his market thoughts that market is capped on the upside for a bit:
6280 is a major inflection point for the August opex.
Above it, we have a strong move to 6400 on tap.
Below it and there is modest support down to 6200, and breaking below 6150 can create quite strong downside
This matches my warning posted earlier this week & last as well: “careful when NVDA tags $172.” Not that we sell-off immediately, but upside is capped for now.
It also matches my warning this morning on ES breaking below the trendline from APRIL 6TH - right before Trump intervened April 9th and tagging/staying above the Iran-Israel de-escalation June 23rd.
We have traded above this trendline for 100 days UNTIL NOW.
And with that, we also made a record of sorts: the 10Y2Y yield curve bear steepener triggered today.
Stock market may have recovered from the headline risk earlier today, but bond market has a long memory.
