Japan Has A Fed Problem
Fed Consensus Is Required
Japan Has A Fed Problem
Missing: Jobs Report Before Dec FOMC
Fed Consensus Is Required
FOMC minutes out Wednesday showed… NO CONSENSUS
Dec Cut camp:
- Miran
- Waller
- Bowman
- Williams
Dec Hold camp:
- Barr
- Musalem
- Schmid
- Goolsbee
- Collins
Neutral/Unknown:
- Powell
- Cook
- Jefferson
Good luck to the next Fed chair who tries to force consensus!!
Fed Independence from the inside out is in full view.
Powell can leave and his replacement will be impotent to change this UNTIL they have data they can trust upon which to forge consensus.
“Without compelling data, it’s actually hard to get people who have pre-existing perspectives to all come to consensus,” said Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
Only sure-fire way Fed cuts is when employment data goes south and recession risk is pulled forward - which continues to be my baseline bet for end of 2025:
WHEN-NOT-IF RECESSION RISK IS PULLED FORWARD