Guilty Until Proven Innocent
Guilty Until Proven Innocent or Short QQQ, Long NatGas!!
So, THAT OIL SHORT!
I did warn when I put on XLE short 2 wks ago:
1. It ALWAYS goes against me initially but then I'm proven right.
2. Oil ALWAYS falls slowly than all at once.
And man, did that CRAK spread fall apart making VLO a major winner. Macro: is slowing economic growth bullish equities?
You know what I think... NO
But will a stall/pullback in DXY to 105.80 area get supported and stall/pullback in 10Y to 4.5 (once it breaks 4.68) support risk assets (read: Nasdaq) or just bonds?
As I Posted in detail yday under Swing: I think NYFANG sells off as BONDS catch a bid.
We shall see... NFP premarket tomorrow.Chase: UNG really likes volatility AND the inventory draw AND seasonality AND a cold winter predicted.
Chase/Swing: EQT as it has lots of nat gas assets. ;-) Already rec'd Swing Long last week of XNGUSD.New Swing Short Ideas: CAT + NOW. Will post in a bit.
Swing Short FSLR from Sept 1st 192 stop is now hitting 145.75 wkly support. Next is 140 area.Trend updates: Careful with extended JBL as it is about 13% from its 10W mean.
MCK + CAH moving higher.Sector sell-off in Consumer Defensive/Staples/Packaged Goods should see capitulation selling soon and start to base ** should ** rates and DXY start to soften. HSY KO CAG etc
Not ready but getting closer. Might be a good speculative long into individual earnings.Sector sell-off in Oil and Precious Metals now needs time to digest before confirming they are ready to swing long. I don't see it yet.
Careful with all longs as I still see credit spreads widening and VIX heading higher.
For intraday purposes: SVXY < >83.73 is the directional tell for market's direction.
Breaking 82.33 on wkly close is akin to QQQ breaking 355. It's a big deal and should see an air pocket of risk below.
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