December 9, 2025 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades - (Samantha and AI Briefing notes)
Macro & Micro - In A Nutshell
Hawkish Fed Rate Cut is priced in. See Dec 8th notes, as the theme hasn’t changed.
A Dot Plot shock will be in focus but also likely fleeting - meaning lots can happen to the Fed S.E.P. in the new year.
Case in point: January is when Trump tries to remove Fed Governor Cook from her post - assuming Supreme Court allows.
Also next year is pivotal for the bulls because most think Powell’s exit in May will translate to aggressive rate cuts.
Not so fast...
Trump has undermined Powell at EVERY opportunity in order to build his own team.
And in the process has destroyed the franchise.
Maybe this is by design (#EndTheFed ala Project 2025), but right now they have forgotten their core mission:
The team that plays together stays together.
And herein lies the problem I have been highlighting a few months now:
Fed has no consensus - so good luck to any incoming Fed Chair ;-)
Powell could be encouraging dissent so as to keep it that way - AND “Fed’s Independence”.
For Powell’s last hat trick - imagine he stays on as Fed Governor AFTER his term as Fed Chair expires in May.
Market is not pricing in: POWELL AS SHADOW FED CHAIR
In a nutshell: Hawkish Fed Rate Cut is priced in for December 2025. But you know what’s not priced in? Fed rate cuts priced out in 2026