December 8, 2025 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades - (Samantha and AI Briefing notes)
Macro In A Nutshell
BofA on the Fed’s meeting: “we expect a 25bps cut in addition to the announcement of RMPs (Reserve Management Purchases) and term repo operations”
Hawkish Fed In Focus - yeah, we all know the expectation is for a cut, but Powell may surprise given lack of data for October for both employment and inflation. Even today, US Labor Dept announced they have cancelled this Thursday’s Oct PPI inflation report as well! Cutting Blind might be a good name for an acid rock band, but not sure it’s a safe bet for setting monetary policy. Remember: FOMC needs consensus. Color me skeptical.
Yield Curve Steepening with term premia - yeah, this is my baseline bet and still clearly in view. Way too much focus on short-end rates and the massive supply needed to fund ever-rising deficits, and way too little attention paid to the fact that each Fed cut since September 2024 has resulted in rising 10Y yields.
Yardeni underweights Concentration Risk - yeah, I know; it’s not really macro, but it is news that after 15 years as a perma-bull, Ed Yardeni says MAG7 is facing an “inevitable correction”.
I will do a later market thoughts write up on rising escalation between Japan-China and its impact on US - toward the end of week & ahead of BOJ meeting next week. For now, a reminder that this Wednesday I will hold a live FOMC trading room session 2-3PM ET as usual.
Micro In A Nutshell
VIX, QQQ, ASTS, TE, GOOGL, WVE, LLY, XLV, NFLX, SPOT, RIVN, ORCL, BA, CVNA
Market Jitters:
VIX - Fri/Sat I posted market is “Set Up For A VIX Unclench”. Today, VIX gained +10% with VVIX reversing those 7 red sideways days. And yet...
QQQ - I have 631.19 (not if but when upside target). This will be a better trigger for market rejection/roll over. So let’s just say I’m very curious if it tags before or after FOMC.
Trend Update:
ASTS -Trend Update was reviewed live and posted in slack trend-ideas channel. It has been my #1 highest conviction long since Feb ‘25 so have a look at the latest write up or review a bit here taken from my live room.