December 17, 2025 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades - (Samantha and AI Briefing notes)
Macro-To-Micro In A Nutshell
Trump’s War With Venezuela -
President Trump ordered a full embargo / blockade of “sanctioned” oil tankers from Venezuela - as cover, he called the Maduro government a terrorist regime. Some are expecting Trump is laying the groundwork for military action while others think it is ‘but a flex’ to assert dominance over Venezuela in general, but South America in particular - as Trump would not like VZ to sell their heavy crude to China/India/Other, but instead seize it and send it up to American refiners for processing.
But of all the threats uttered by Trump, this one sticks out:
VENEZUELA MUST RETURN OIL, LAND, OTHER STOLEN ASSETS
What do you think he means? Well, I’ve got an idea...
Venezuela and Guyana are disputing land that would change offshore rights!
Why does this matter? An astute X follower (Dennis Davis @ddavis914) shared with me the story which I confirmed with Client Brian is actually a thing but absolutely not reported by Trump Administration or Media of any kind...
Fact 1: Guyanese/Exxon Mobile oil
A recent significant oil discovery announced offshore Guyana - the Bluefin field by ExxonMobil in in March 2024, located in the prolific Stabroek Block, adding to Guyana’s massive reserves and potential for future developments. It’s part of the ongoing exploration in the Stabroek Block, which holds billions of barrels and continues to grow Guyana’s status as a major oil producer.Fact 2: Venezuela and Guyana are disputing the Essequibo region, a vast, resource-rich area west of the Essequibo River that makes up about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, with Venezuela claiming sovereignty based on a 19th-century award and Guyana asserting its control as established by the 1899 Paris Arbitral Award and subsequent agreements, leading to current tensions and actions like Venezuela’s recent referendums and Guyana seeking International Court of Justice (ICJ) intervention.
Fact 3: if Venezuela arrives to control the Essequibo region it will the control the Stabroek block oil.
What are the chances our US military is being used - under guise of narcoterrorism and regime change - as police force to protect its oil investment for Exxon Mobile and HESS (Trump loyalist/buddies)?!So let me summarize:
1. Yuge oil discovery announced offshore Guyana
2. Exxon Mobile “partnered” with Guyana March 2024
3. Venezuela and Guyana are disputing land that would change these offshore rights
Another consideration is even simpler: US refineries are addicted to the VZ oil.
Maybe stealing oil rigs from Venezuela helps US economy … ya know from an oil & gas industry recession and from crude oil crashing lower. ;-)
TRADE UPDATES
SPX 6700 DON’T COMPLICATE IT - that was my bet last week for this Friday (see Monday’s video review). And it’s happening - nice and easy.
RTY & ES - yup
SPX & QQQ - yup
VIX, VVIX - yup
But now... I see SPX will be $6630 by M/T after the $MU fade.
with $QQQ back to 595!
Even if MU beat AS EXPECTED! Crushed it in fact.
Micron guidance is off the charts! Literally:
But I said I expected any bounce in MU to get faded until this current growth reset is completed.
Just like all the other AI & SEMI SHORTS of late... we have yet to find a suitable bottom.
In fact, my rec’d $ORCL + $AVGO + $NVDA + $AMD + $GOOGL & AAPL shorts are the gifts that keep giving!!
We are getting closer…