Crashing Up?
Morning gap got bought, obviously.
My SPX 4218.70 short from last week was taken out to the downside before reversing at 4189.22 back to 4241 .
My QQQ 351.80 short from last week was also taken out before reversing intraday strongly back to 357.50.
VIX was my 1st tell as called it live this morning that it would likely would come back down to 20.44 area once it tagged and got rejected at the WKLY BB + KC (Bollinger band and keltner channel) resistance (red arrow on chart). We can even overshoot - see chart with Hrly trendline tag at 19.98, daily 8D tag 19.61 and Wkly support down near 18.70/21 area.
SVXY getting above 80 and turning green early was the early tell for market to bounce EVEN THOUGH under the surface breadth is still falling and net selling still taking place albeit as slower pace.
TSLA was the best chase long as I had marked 202.50 on OCT 18TH as short PT and BIG SUPPORT for options market. Man, Tesla turned violently around at 202.51!!
And market followed. Gave NVDA to 428 - also hit
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As shown live, my USD/10Y ratio rolled over after the 1st 15 min bar and then picked up speed after 10AM confirming the bullish bounce below 325.
But it is still above 300 - so this doesn't change any of my warnings!
Bonds bounced on Ackman calling out that he is covering his bond shorts, but I contend: following Ackman is not a durable investment thesis. It did trigger algos to put a bid in stocks and bonds this morning - as I called out live at the time.Now we need follow through in the form of natural buyers.
Intraday, SPX 4223 needed to fill - it did - then/now it needs to stay above - tag 4241 with overshoot potential to 4247 and in time 4254 - assuming this bounce holds for the day.
No Fed heads speaking today or economic data of importance or even earnings of note.
The big drama comes this week with MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN earnings.
Lots of chases long but no change to my swing short thesis.
Newly entered XLE short last week is working - CVX buying HES is helping as crude also softens and refiners fade.
NVDA tagged swing short 409 before bouncing intraday on cue. Yes, I still see it filling hrly support near 395.
NFLX puts are accumulating so I will stay with my swing short betting that resistance of 410 holds.
I have no edge with mega cap tech earnings this week but I am still seeing strong indication of Nasdaq distribution since June 1st turning top and just need to push back/stay before June 1st level to confirm: 348.50 on wkly close. I have posted a chart of COMPQ to show where I see markets headed sooner rather than later
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So far, the Monday playbook holds: Gaps down on Monday get bought. As I mentioned early this morning: it is much better to gap up on a Monday for bears to feast.
Speaking of Mondays, I didn't know this has been a regular thing:
MONDAY GAP DOWN GETTING BOUGHT HAS NOW HAPPENED FOR THE SIXTEENTH WEEK IN A ROW
 - this was a stat I read off live in my trading room, as per Steve Sosnick.
Big picture, I still see no capitulation low on swing basis.
BUT the trifecta of yields, dollar and oil falling below key levels will create capitulation.
BIG PICTURE:
I still can't help but see that the max pain would be $3800 by end-of-year, and my macro, intermarket and technical view continues to support this possibility as growing.
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