Chop Day

FOMC at 2PM today; CPI tomorrow morning.
PPI today was hot but didn't interrupt softening yields - my baseline bet since Friday and reason for market bounce in both stocks and bonds, gold and yen. OK, yen isn't moving.

Chases (also Swings) yday in PLTR + WW are staying bid.
Nat Gas is coming back in as warned as is oil with XLE short - posted in Swing with detailed reasons why War is not necessarily bullish crude.

LLY trend play went right back up to revisit $600 as peer NVO announced efficacy in helping kidney disease. The result was MASSIVE sell-off in IHI medical device sector (and continued in DXCM glucose monitoring device player). ALL 56 STOCKS IN IHI SECTOR WERE RED. That is forced selling: "sell now, ask questions later" kinda selling. Some will be great buys again, like XLP + XLU once the forced selling in those sectors past few weeks stabilizes. Likely with earnings. 

Today's Chase/Swing was AMGN - gorgeous wkly breakout > 268.24 now pushing above 276.84 on way to 282.67.

Stuff that is still bid: NYFANG/QQQ/MAG7 (on risk off) and China plays KWEB/BABA/NTES (on stimulus).

Timing for TLT chase/swing bounce is also working with continued bid in XAR and HACK plays in response to Middle East War.

But market won't sell off with out volatilty and selling:
VIX is still falling/SVXY green and T2104 is neutral today/bullish since last Wed with breadth not falling further. Need a trigger to reverse the momentum or at least CTAs selling strength to keep the market under QQQ 370 and SPX 4380 WKLY CLOSE.

BTCUSD - as a tell... One of my tells for more volatility:
Bitcoin selling off - is starting to happen
Expecting volatility to emerge as this liquidity tell falls.

---

Did you enjoy #samanthas-market-thoughts posted above? Then you would love full access to her and her live trading room, detailed macro and intermarket analysis, not to mention full portfolio of trades across Chase, Swing and Trend timeframes!
Upgrade to CLUB or EDGE today!