Catching A Tiger By The Tail
Catching A Tiger By The Tail
About That Post FOMC Bounce Call
Bulls Looking For Redemption
Fed Day Out Of The Way. Now BOJ Paves Its Way
Catching A Tiger By The Tail
We just positioned short for the “largest/fastest momentum crash in modern history.”
BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky said so.
And the MS Sector-Neutral Momentum Index has seen its worst four-day decline on record at 17.4%. That surpassed the drops after the dot-com bust, 2022 and post-COVID. per @MarketWatch
He reminds:
In 2000, post dot-com peak, the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX sank 35% in a month, it surged 37% before falling again.
So don’t get too complacent. We aren’t out of the woods from my macro, technical, intermarket or sentiment read. Fundamentals are strong but fund flows have suffered.
The biggest risk, as I have written about for clients repeatedly and again two wks ago: "Rising Yields are Kryptonite to AI Bulls". And Warsh said yesterday that the Fed is fine with the long-end rising.
For now:
My “post-FOMC bounce” is in play!
After catching the largest dispersion unwind ever!
Then calling the hawkish pause.
And AAPL just blew through my $315 short target on an “As Good As It Gets” double earnings beat.
It’s been a good week/month!!
“While she expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged and sees the potential for a short-term bounce after the meeting, she continues to recommend protecting portfolios.” 💃😉
About That Post FOMC Bounce Call
I laid out the bounce thesis here - as well as live:
