Hell-Bent On $6666 Still In View, But First…
Sunday/Today we get a treat: the second total lunar eclipse this year. Great timing with the seasonal volatility that enters markets historically.
With that, I wanted to remind: I have been solidly bullish since policy intervention April 9th (1:15 PM ET client post to be precise) with confirmation for follow through given my breadth and liquidity tells - specifically my 'line-in-sand' Fed Liquidity indicator April 23rd.
My swing long bent was further supported by my "May 12th Birthday Rally" post and intervention June 23rd on the Iran-Israel de-escalation - all the way into my early July warnings that I only saw interruption to this $6666 SPX target on a CHASE basis JULY 31st and again AUG 15-20th. Market weakened on cue for both, so that worked.
Navigating Sept/Oct will be a tad tougher - as I mentioned Tuesday: MINI GROWTH SCARE CAN TURN MAJOR GROWTH RISK - where I stated I expect mostly chop until FOMC at which point I need to weigh the late-Sept corporate bond issuance against government shutdown risks. Obviously, I will keep you posted!
But behind all of this macro event risk calendar, I am still focused on keeping clients on the right side of the TREND: and it is still bullish. But the macro risks of Employment <> Inflation are now joining the mainstream conversation - exactly as I warned as we enter the Q3 earnings season and Fed rate cutting cycle that has been on hold for a year.
Now, you know my position, in advance: RECESSION RISK JUST GOT PULLED FORWARD. This was a client post right after August 1st payrolls, where I also warned the data would show a weakening labor market and would push Powell to concede a normative 25bp rate cut for Sept FOMC.
All is going to plan - along with the 10Y2Y steepener AND breakout long in gold, silver, miners which I presented early last month in my intermarket-tells client post that gold was consolidating for a breakout higher - after recommending trend long since Spring of last year.
Also still in play since I posted this June 3, 2025:
My macro take is simple:
Falling demand for USD and falling nominal value in USD against peers will help this gold & silver trade on a trend basis, especially as inflation, war vibes, recession risk and/or fiscal spending rise.Rotation out of gold into equities in a melt-up scenario will slow it down.
The inverse is also true.Volatility needs to remain muted - especially for silver to run.
Client Jose says a high VIX is kryptonite for a silver squeeze.
But now it's time to remind of the risks and where I see volatility entering again.