Big Market Timing: A Small Review
My 2026 Sector Rotation & Market Direction Framework
Big Market Timing: A Small Review
Timing A Momentum Unwind: SOXX Enters Bear Market (-25%)
My 2026 Sector Rotation & Market Direction Framework
I track macro-to-micro across global assets and chase/swing/trend timeframes and live commentate while engaging with LaDucTrading clients on stocks/themes they are actively trading. I give market direction, sector rotation and stock selection picks as well. If you are not in my daily live trading room, you don’t get a full sense of all I do. That’s why I created this Substack: to post my over-arching market thoughts for regular subscribers and offer up a recording of my trading room with detailed AI briefing notes for PRO subscribers.
Most traders out there just want the trade, not the reason behind it. That is why I am especially thankful you are here: to see how I synthesize the markets across macro, fundamental, technical, sentiment, intermarket and quant intel to come up with durable swing & trend trading themes to help you navigate markets safely.
Markets move fast. Manias move faster. And so far this year we have had several 6-sigma moves:
in gold & silver (January)
oil (March)
tech (April then June) - and within tech, specifically in semis and memory plays both here in the US and abroad (South Korea, Taiwan)
I love tracking and stress-testing my market timing calls live for clients each morning and grateful to those who stick around to see my calls come to fruition. I thought it might add some color on my process and track record to review some of these calls. I link to some of the articles and video snippets you receive here in Substack so you can ‘follow along’ if not a client of my financial research firm where I work with a fabulous bench of professional macro-and-micro analysts, educators and traders.
It’s A Dance
To me, sector rotation is a dance - of money flow that enters the market, sloshes about from offense to defense and back again, and then in lieu of sector rotation there is volatility. But those volatility moves are usually triggered from a macro event risk. And we need a macro event risk to interrupt the bullish flows.
Given the market rises ~80% of the time, I tend to use my macro and intermarket analysis to time macro event risks - not obsess on them. I use my technical and quant (option) analysis to predict directional moves in sectors and stocks - where I spend the majority of my time obsessing over for clients so as to keep them on the right side of the trade.
Before timing the current momentum unwind, which has SOXX currently entering a technical bear market (-25%), I had a few notable sector rotation calls worth highlighting. I hope you can see that the TRADE presents itself within the sector flows. And that is why I tend to specialize on sector rotation: so clients can better position, profit and protect.
Big Market Timing: A Small Review
I correctly timed the Growth into Value rotation Nov ‘25 - Feb ‘26. I have a bunch of video snippets on our LaDucTrading YouTube channel if you want to check them out on individual trades, but the above one sums up the rotation thesis well. Again, when I find a durable sector rotation theme, I stick with it every day for clients until it ends.
My call on Gold (silver, precious & industrial metals):
Warned clients Jan 22nd that precious metals were ready to break their uptrend. Then I caught the 39% pullback in silver Jan 28-29th with the 16% pullback in gold LIVE. Also, I warned the top was in for the year and it would drift sideways to lower. It was not a popular call, but it was the correct one.
Updated June 10th: Gold & Silver Intermarket Warning Still In View – Since January. All metals have continued to drift sideways/lower as dollar has been supported. So watch the dollar!
I warned Iran Risk Is Not Priced In two weeks before the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran Feb 28th, and gave a crude price target of $120. WTIC tagged $119.48.
I did not time the equity bottom, but I did say in late March that the biggest risk to bears was a ceasefire. We got a ceasefire April 8th and I wrote about repeatedly how Flows Over Fundamentals would matter most to bulls.
Fast forward to June 1 when I warned of coming ‘dispersion unwind’ with The Mag7 Short Basket and then June 23 of the Chop Until The Drop This Summer. Man, have we had chop past two months!
Also, I warned June 4: It was time for Protection.
My call on USD
This one was eerily timed. I warned January that I saw a bottom in the DXY - same time as I predicted Kevin Warsh would be nominated for Fed Chair. Yes, they are related, and yes, both happened.
Updating daily, I can still see up to 105 before a strong rejection.
My call on Yen
Warned USDJPY would rise and yen would fall, which would put upward pressure on the dollar - especially on re-escalation with Iran.
I did not expect a yen carry trade unwind risk in 2025 and I still don’t see one in 2026 - at least not untl Japan decouples from US and the petrol-dollar - which could be pulled forward from Trump’s war of choice on Iran.
Timing A Momentum Unwind: SOXX Enters Bear Market (-25%)
“Micron Got Us Into This Sector Short & Micron Will Tell Us When To Get Out!” Me
June 25 I called the bottom in the hyperscalers and recommended shorts in a basket of Semi/Memory stocks the day after Micron announced best-evah earnings. All are down 20-40% on a stock basis.
Updated July 1st: Timing The Hyperscaler Rotation: MAGS, IGV, KWEB, META same time as my oil bounce call from $67.50 to $85 (still underway).
Updated July 3rd: Semi Slaughter On Schedule
Updated July 7: Rotation & Mean Reversion In Semi Shorts
Updated July 8: Pigs Get Slaughtered
Updated July 11: AI Momentum Stalls While Refiners Run
Updated July 15: Rotation Call Delivers Into MAGS, IGV, KWEB
THE LATEST July 18: ‘EVERYONE’-IS-STILL-LONG-SEMIS TEST
I think that catches you up on my 1H26 market timing calls - and first few weeks of July! Hope it helps!!
DON’T MISS A VIDEO: Set notifications in Substack under VIDEOS
or go to our LaDucTrading YouTube Channel
I look forward to seeing you in my live trading room!
And to incentivize you, here is a very special “birthday” offer - valid only until Monday:
