Agent Of Chaos
There Will Be No Shortcut To This War
It’s More Than A Forecast of Higher Oil
The Nuclear Threat Isn’t From Iran
Eyes Wide Open As Crash Odds Grow
There Will Be No Shortcut To This War
A brief tactical review:
I warned all last week there would be a sell-off of size into Friday and that the “Monday gap down” would get bought. I described in advance and live it was purely mechanical “put monetization”. Buying was NOT fundamental, just short-covering and naive bulls getting caught on Trump tactics of manipulation:
TRUMP SAYS “I THINK THE (IRAN) WAR IS VERY COMPLETE, PRETTY MUCH" 3:21 PM ET Monday
See screenshot from my weekend post highlighting “SPX: $6666 (6630” target that could fuel “RIGHT TAIL EVENT”. Both happened.
VIX just tagged 22.19 today.
Not only did Trump manipulate markets higher yesterday afternoon, but a post by US Energy Secretary Wright that "The US escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz" WAS REMOVED this afternoon - but of course after oil dumped!
I saw the original post and immediately checked. Nowhere was there proof Navy escorted any tanker & the tanker that had passed (Wright referenced in a press conference “36 hours earlier) was full of oil for China!
This is why Financial Times came out with a good read today:
America has become an agent of chaos in world energy markets | opinion
All of these gyrations by Trump and his administration only embolden me to remind:
"the chances of the US-Israel having success in any forceful action to open the strait are very low." Patricia Marins
Mines are the focus now. Which is why Trump just posted:
“If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction!”
So what are Vegas-odds, Iran even listens to this guy anymore? And what are the chances ships will sail with this threat - with or without insurance, with or without US Naval escort?
Point is: you can look for headlines to play the bounces, but there will be no shortcuts to this war.
This isn’t just another Middle East conflict. It’s a ultra high-stakes survival game for Iran, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman) that are caught in the cross-fire! US-Israel have no influence over the IGRC and are losing any they had with the GCC.
Their oil, water vulnerability, and massive capital investments in US investments are pivotal for their survival, and are tightly linked to the health of the global economy.
Last week proved that. We had a sell-off that wiped off $6 trillion in assets GLOBALLY.
And if you are a client, you were positioned for the higher OIL & VIX and lower markets both domestically and abroad. AND the bounce Monday. You’re welcome.
Moving on… let’s see what frightens me enough to warn why I see this as a bull trap:
