After The Squeeze

Historic 99.7th Percentile

Policy Intervention V-Shaped Rally in full view. We know Trump’s Policy intervention headlines, mechanical flows & short covering triggered a sharp V-shaped rally - what we didn’t know is that it would end up being historic.

Warren Pies@WarrenPies

The last 10-days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950. First, the S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10-days, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns.

1:13 PM · Apr 15, 2026 · 437K Views

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96 Replies · 369 Reposts · 2.82K Likes

Now question on every Bull & Bear’s mind:

What are Vegas odds it becomes structural from fundamental reasons versus mechanical from money flow?

Well, I may not have predicted a melt-up, but I did give some pretty decent levels of IF-THEN for upside:

ES has reached the price target I gave of 7061 once above 6666.

RTY has reached the price target I gave of 2722 once above 2600.

USD sitting on 98 support AFTER I gave that level as breakdown support if markets were to move higher. While 10Y yield stuck the landing at 4.3% and WTIC pinned $91.

And let’s talk about my growth rally call!!!