$666 to $6666?

End of times stuff? Let's get through the week/month/year first ;-)

»CLUB/EDGE client post Monday, December 2nd.

The Week Ahead

WELCOME BACK!!!

S&P 500 gained 5.7% in November - posting the best month of 2024!
And in case you didn't know: December is typically bullish as well.

Going back to 1928, the $SPX has finished December positive 74% of the time, and is the month of the year most likely to finish in the green.

We might have some issues at the JPM call wall of $6050, but otherwise, the market is still well-supported under the surface (as I review daily live in my trading room).

Economic data is light at the beginning of the week. Today's ISM report was a mixed bag, much like the Wednesday data last week: something for both bulls and bears.
But Fed Waller was out today pushing for a rate cut, ahead of the only economic data print that markets long for to justify said cut: non-farm payroll on Friday.

Keep in mind, this reading will be compared to October when only 12K jobs were added. That was in part due to hurricanes (Milton, Helene) and strikes (Boeing).
Deutsche Bank sees nonfarm payrolls growing by 200K in November. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to tick higher to 4.1%, but I contend it's not volatility producing until we get 4.4%. Bonds should be chop sideways until then.

Ahead of the jobs report, we get a look at JOLTS and ADP's look at private employment, but I care most about Jobless Claims, and then only when it starts trending higher consistently, and then only when it gets/stays above 267K.

Earnings are light but Powell speaks on Wednesday, and every day we get to monitor Trump's latest announcement on updated Tariffs. (It's gonna be a long four years.)

This Market Is SO Late Cycle

I'm mainly bearish next year on the US stock market which will flow-over into the US economy, but that's not for the next month or two.

We had a taste of how quickly VIX can unwind back in July-August with the yen carry trade unwound. Most are content we will not have a repeat.
I'm actually counting on it.

Remember, I warned about the falling value of the dollar in Nov of 2023, and posted in Dec of last year how I expected a "1999-esque" market run. I even gave SPX $6010 as my target for 2024! We are there, and now BofA is predicting we tag $6666 next year!?!

Wouldn't that be fitting: March 2009 we stopped falling at $666. Will we stop rising March 2025 at $6666?

Regardless, the next two years should be treacherous.
And we are but a hair-trigger away from an outbreak of War in Europe.
Another VIX unwind is my baseline-bet!

But in the meantime, we should have a tail-wind for a further advance in ...