5/20/25 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades

Japan Carry Trade Risks Growing

Liquidity Getting Tested

I finished my weekly SiriusXM interview and preparing for an after-hours podcast/webinar - both to be broadcast/published tomorrow.

Reminder that our Macro-To-Micro Options Power Hour with Hans of options-mentor-hans will be held Thursday after market close this week - resuming on Wed next week.

For now, I want to let you know Trump is having a hard time trying to 'negotiate' his way into getting the GOP to fall in line for his fiscal reach/breach of a bill.

He is bashing Representative Thomas Massie and making some 'bold' statements like:

“bigger than any tax cut in the history of our country … or get a 68% tax increase"

If you believe this is true, AND that he will get his tax cuts through, then buy stocks.

If not. Brace for impact. Or at least hedge cheaply.

As I posted in my intermarket-tells, and discussed this week, the put/call ratio is at a level that often precedes market pullbacks in coming weeks.

Hedges have been largely unwound, so now we need the bulls to step up or the selling I see JUST starting under the surface will create potential for an air pocket of risk.

I believe this new selling under the surface could be uncertainty - let's call it "Vegas Odds" - that the tax cuts won’t get extended with a debt ceiling raise in time before "money runs out" at Treasury, as Bessent has warned.

Early yet, but after SIX straight weekly green closes with this one indicator, I am finally seeing the first signs of intraday selling that might stick.