3/4/25 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades
What is even happening - I can’t keep up….
Chaos: When the present determines the future but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. - Edward Lorenz
Monday night Trump confirms tariffs go into effect Tuesday. Immediately, China and Canada retaliate with tariffs of their own. China doesn’t mince words:
“If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.” China’s Official Spokesperson
Tuesday after market close, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick is on TV saying: "Trump may roll back Canada and Mexico tariffs tomorrow".
Wednesday and every day of Trump’s presidency will be more of the same - much noise little signal.
Selling Not Done
Friday Live Trading Room Review:
“Now, for CURRENT volatility, I firmly believe it is not done, which means the selling is not done. This is just an intraday bounce to relieve oversold conditions.
And with that, Monday morning in my live trading room I kept repeating that I did not trust the gap up or the market. All the issues I had highlighted from Friday were still big glaring problems: breadth breakdown, option flow breakdown, net selling under the surface, US-JP rate spread differentials falling with my growth:value ratio falling, and vix indicators/ratios falling as credit spreads intonating they wanted to rise.
So I doubled down:
"I don't trust this market… I see oil dumping with yields and equities."
And then, oil dumped with yields and equities. My QQQ bet from Friday for $487.20 missed by $.53. VVIX moved into my 123 target and VIX moved from 19 to 26+, a 39% advance before retreated below key 25.20 resistance today where I said to use this as your level to play an intraday bounce: bullish market below, bearish above.
That worked well for nice scalp longs, but that does not mean I see the selling as done big picture - even though I know so many high-beta growth names in general and Nasdaq 100 in particular are sitting on key moving averages for support, like QQQ on the 200D.
But I contend market’s crash from oversold, and nothing good happens below the 200D, so take care. Here are the most critical charts I track every day for clients that have helped me time not only my “Macro Collective Trades” but also the market direction, duration and intensity: