3/10/25 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades
Don’t say I didn’t warn ya! ;-)
Volatility Is Not Done
“Over the last 12 days, the S&P 500 High Beta Index has lost 14.4%. Meanwhile, the Low Volatility Index is up 1.4% over the same time period. All over Wall Street, folks are selling risk and buying security.” Eddy Elfenbein March 6th.
THE RESULT?
The MAG 7 just lost a combined ~$752B+ in market value during today’s slide.
Nasdaq posted its worst 1-day decline since September 2022.
Combined, over $1.9 trillion wiped out from the stock and crypto markets.
Value held in there!
Pricing in recession has begun as there are now FOUR Cuts (100 basis points) priced by December of 2025.
Yardeni in February said we may not see another recession for 10 years. Now he says we have have entered one.
Here’s what I said in JANUARY when odds were ZERO recession risk this year:
Capitulation Selling Yet?
From my live trading room Friday:
"The next time we have a -3% down day, we will have a VIX spike."
That happened today! As such, I posted an update for CLUB/EDGE clients this afternoon:
QUICK EOD NOTE ON POTENTIAL BOUNCE
QQQ stabilizing at my 471 level just before some LARGE rebalancing into the close. (McElligott from Nomura)
Same time VIX overshot my 28.53 monthly resistance, so BELOW is market bullish, above is not. (just like we used 19.29, then 25.20; now the line-in-sand is 28.53).
SPX did have that -3% day (actually -3.57%), and VIX did spike (26.5%).
I don't want to tell you it's "safe" out there, but I do want to warn you about aggressive EOD rebalancing that * could * put a temp bottom in play.
Again, there is nothing for swing long with high probability, yet, but for chase long, yes.
Working on my INTERMARKET ANALYSIS CHARTS to share with you tomorrow. Have a great evening!!
PS - SPX ALSO JUST TAGGED THE JPM COLLAR LEVEL OF 5565.
With that, I did record a one-hour long review of my annotated big-picture charts for CLUB/EDGE clients that will be posted tomorrow that still warns:
Big picture, volatility is here to stay for 2025, and market likely doesn’t get a durable swing long trade until after OpEx as warned early and often.
Clients: Protected
New Annual EDGE client (from Hong Kong):
I also have warned publicly every Wednesday in our Macro-to-Micro Options Power Hour. Join us this week!
TRADE UPDATES
UAL, DAL, JETS - My high conviction sector theme SHORT AIRLINES from beginning of the year with rec’d MAR & JUN puts not only WORKED AWESOME into today but afterhours they are crashing.
Delta Airlines is cutting outlook A/H: Cuts Q1 $0.40 v $0.87 est (huge miss). Sees Rev +3.5% YoY vs +8% prev. Op margin 4.5% vs 7% prev. Mgmt says impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty.