2/28/25 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades
"bounce then trounce" revisited
“Clean Up In Aisle 7!”
Friday live-trading-room review on a Sunday because I was laser-focused on assembling my market thoughts Friday afternoon and all day Saturday for clients:
Trump Is Fine With A US Govt Shutdown - also on Substack
Trade Ideas Around A US Govt Shutdown - for PRO subs on Substack
"VIX may not be scary - but our market is in full panic." - only available to CLUB/EDGE.
As for Friday… I love it when a plan comes together!!
Got this message in our member slack workspace, because it’s true: I did say to short QQQ below 539 into post-NVDA, post-jobless claims Thursday/into EOW/EOM before a bounce.
And what I said Friday morning pre-market live was this: “Stabilization Day”. And with that, SO many of the levels I saw short pre-selloff - like “NVDA $119” - served as fabulous short-cover/bounce-worthy levels for Lotto Friday!
NVDA case in point: It dumped at that usual place - $136 after earnings into my 119 PT given BEFORE earnings. Then it bounced at 116.40 a few pennies from my 116.23 overshoot level, right back into 125 by EOD. And with that, SPX bounced at 5837.66, a few pennies from my 5843.31 level I had given the day before.
Now what? Well, a tremendous dealer-led convexity, short-covering, fund-rebalancing bounce on an EOW/EOM Friday does not a rally make. As I said several months ago - I saw volatility and sideways for markets moving into Q1/Q2 - but no breakout rallies. And recent market risks still support my view we have a solid break-down 2nd half. TOPS ARE A PROCESS. Again, I see no SPX $7500 hat!
Now, for CURRENT volatility, I firmly believe it is not done, which means the selling is not done. This is just an intraday bounce to relieve oversold conditions. I did say Wednesday: “expect a bounce then trounce”. That’s still my baseline bet into March 14th US Government Shutdown Showdown risk, FOMC March 19th, and March 21st Options Expiration.
With that, know what you own. If you want to ‘get out of the pool’ until after the selling has subsided and policy intervention back-stops the market, then do that. If you are a CLUB/EDGE client and need help to protect your portfolio, we can help with that. Reach out to #custom-trade-support where Mike & Archna provide direct engagement on all things options. Follow Hans in his channel at #options-mentor-hans whose job it was to protect multi-billion dollar funds from risk-led times like these. I am here to help identify the twists & turns, but you are the one that has to push the buy/sell/protect buttons.
If you are not a CLUB/EDGE member, we created a pop-up sale for you.
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