2025 MAG7 OUTLOOK: "ONE MORE HIGH, AGAIN!"

Macro. Technical. Intermarket. Fundamental. Sentiment. Quant.

»CLUB/EDGE client post January 3rd, 2024

Concentration Risk Matters To Market Returns

November 16th, 2023 - after realizing the extent of the November 1st "Fed Pause and Yellen Yahtzee" policy intervention, I posted that this felt like 1995 or 1999, but either way, US dollar and yields were about to fall and equities get supported. That happened.

I also warned July 9th, 2024 that the market looked ready to have that MAG7 concentration risk unwind just before NDX fell -15%, SMH - 25%, NVDA -35%.

After the strength of the August 5th convexity short-covering bounce, I gave updated SPX and QQQ price targets with SPX 6010 the top for 2024. We hit that on the Trump election win, and we have been digesting around it for two months now.

As we now move officially into 2025, I wanted to take a fresh look at the concentration risk that is MAG7 - across: Macro, Technical, Intermarket, Fundamental, Sentiment and Quant.