2024 Predictions!

2024 Predictions! And Happy Almost New Year!!

First, A Trip Down Memory Lane...

Market Predictions Are Hard!
So here are just a few of my top calls for each of the past few years to which long-time clients can happily attest:

2020: "Covid Crash" and "THINGS OVER PAPER" themes

- Feb 18th warned clients loudly market was about to sell-off. SPX crashed 35% into the Friday of March QTR OpEx when I warned it was done.
- August 25th warned clients "Bonds are done going up" which has proven to still be the Bottom in interest rates + inflation.

2021: "Energy to Outperform" and "Bonds to Crash"

- March was my "Oil As Inflation Hedge" macro trend thesis for clients with "Crude to Double in 1 yr". Result was the Energy sector outperformed Tech and WTI Crude went on to double from $65 to $130 by March 2022.
- October was my call that "Deflation of Wages Ended with Covid" and bonds would crash in in 2022. Just so happens: Bonds had their biggest yearly loss on record in 2022.

2022: "Nasdaq Outperformance Ends"

- SPX to $3800
- Growth-To-Value Rotation Outperforms
- Crude Oil to hit $130 by March
- Nasdaq Underperforms greatly
- Rates rise; Bonds fall more than people think

2023: "Paid To Wait" and "4.7% 10Y!"

- Before everyone was parking cash in high-yielding Tbills + money market funds, I coined the phrase "PAID TO WAIT" in Sept 2022 as a durable rotation.
- Before the US 10-year yield hit 4.99% this past October, I made the prediction 09.22.22 that the 10Y would hit 4.7% before end of 2023. HIT!

Bonus 2023:

- I was convinced March 12th the Fed would step down and then pause their rate hikes by July. They have.
- I also warned mid-July "market was priced for perfection" and to expect a pullback. We rolled over Aug/Sept/Oct, before warning that gov’t intervention would push stocks back up. We got both!

2024 PREDICTIONS - IN PLAY from Nov2nd:

• “USD Has Likely Peaked”

• “10Y pullback to 4.1% before moving higher into 6.5% by YE 2024”

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For the rest of my report - Macro-to-Micro style - and as posted in November for clients:

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