In this short clip from Live Trading Room (Apr 29, 2026), Samantha LaDuc explains that the market’s recent pullback is more about normal consolidation and profit-taking—especially in semiconductors—than a true breakdown, even as volatility and headline risks increase.

She highlights that despite fragile upside conditions, a “stealth buyer” (volatility-controlled funds) continues to support equities, while upcoming mega-cap earnings and Fed expectations will likely drive the next move in the S&P 500.

You can engage directly with me and my fabulous team at www.laductrading.com/club/ – for all our research and trades. Or for just the daily livestreams, you can access via YouTube Memberships.

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CLUB provides access to me and my team of professional macro & micro traders, analysts, and educators. CLUB is ideal for active Traders, Investors, and Institutions who want my best-of-breed market-timing calls across all asset classes and time frames, like chase, swing, and trend.

You get access to the Daily Live Trading Room with me, Slack Trading Desk with detailed analysis and trades, Custom Trade Support when you need it, and much more.

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Semi Surge Seems Stressed

My Fragile Upside warning Monday morning was not to chase this right-tail but expect digestion at least/exhaustion at best. Then Tuesday, semis gapped down - which led to the softness in markets on low drama.

Goldman: "High Beta Momentum (GSPRHIMO) [was down] 7.5% [Tuesday] on the back of reports that OpenAI is not hitting sales targets (WSJ). This is one of the worst days for the pair in the past five years (99th percentile) and the move has completely reversed what was previously the pair’s strongest ten-day gain on record."

Semiconductors were pummeled in general Tuesday:

In addition to the OpenAI news, sanctions on the sector also hit stocks:

The U.S. ordered numerous chip equipment companies to halt tool shipments to two facilities of Huahong, China’s second-largest chipmaker, according to sources.

No big drama, yet, but divergences abound from macro risks (manifest in higher oil, dollar and yields) ahead of earnings expectations for MAG5 companies reporting this week …. setting up this volatile sideways before we can really get traction - either direction!

For now, it looks like VIX is undergoing compression Tuesday/Wednesday that can bring expansion Thursday/Friday. (More on this below).

In the meantime, SPX positioning is still trend bullish but hedged. They aren’t chasing upside but collaring (selling puts/selling calls) in a channel between 7000-7200 while buying late May/June puts as insurance.

Clearly, market is waiting for the big MAG5 earnings in particular, but also to pass through unscathed from Powell’s last FOMC press conference Wed & ISM Thurs.

Dealer option positioning presents a cunundrum - damned if markets rally and damned if they don’t!

Dealers enter aggressive short gamma should the index move 2-4% higher. via GS

Regarding CTAs, they also face an ultimatum:

If markets rally 1-2x standard deviations (3.6–7.2% spot move) in the next month, with vols compressing — GS estimates ~$40B of additional buying

If markets fall 1-2.5 sigma — GS estimates ~$125-240B of renewed sales

More support for my “Fragile Upside” thesis indeed.

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Semi Reflexivity In Full View

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In this short clip from Live Trading Room (Apr 28, 2026), Samantha LaDuc explains that the pullback in semiconductors is largely profit-taking after an extended rally, with an OpenAI headline acting as the short-term trigger.

She highlights rising yields, a stronger dollar, and higher oil as macro headwinds, while noting key support levels like SPX 6950, where buyers may step in.

Overall, the move is framed as a healthy reversion within an uptrend, with markets now digesting gains ahead of major events like Fed decisions and big tech earnings.

You can engage directly with me and my fabulous team at www.laductrading.com/club/ – for all our research and trades. Or for just the daily livestreams, you can access via YouTube Memberships.

Watch on Youtube

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About my CLUB trading service

CLUB provides access to me and my team of professional macro & micro traders, analysts, and educators. CLUB is ideal for active Traders, Investors, and Institutions who want my best-of-breed market-timing calls across all asset classes and time frames, like chase, swing, and trend.

You get access to the Daily Live Trading Room with me, Slack Trading Desk with detailed analysis and trades, Custom Trade Support when you need it, and much more.

Get The Trade Before It Happens!

Sign up for CLUB today

My other services
EDGE for advanced traders and investors
CHASE for newer traders

Watch Today’s LIVE TRADING ROOM Recording…

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OpenAI news is hitting the AI sector - notably ORCL - as its CFO reported they are not meeting revenue and user goals.

And there is a rumor GOOGL is starting to move away from AVGO.

My reversion to mean call from Monday morning post and live trading room is in play: AMD, ARM, QQQ, SMH, etc.

QQQ has date with 651.85 where it needs to get defended or 642 is next. Mean is 625 at 10W so obviously could be a big reversal EVEN THOUGH market is well supplied into SPX 6950 as I wrote...

Also higher dollar, oil & yields from Iran war escalation & hawkish BOJ.

So my SLV & GLD warning is working for shorts!!!

For long recommendation Monday, check out that DBA breakout :))

And Wheat (sadly) on food inflation woes from fertilizer supply shock and rising diesel prices continues to move higher as expected.

Here’s a quick video snippet from Monday’s post or you can read it in full above.

Just remember, MAG5 reporting and ISM this week.

Looking ahead, we had drama in Tokyo where THREE dissented against a rate hike pause. USDJPY did a quick trip to express this hawkish bent before getting defended, but I call attention to it because it will have follow-through on an actual hike. And a reminder that a sharply rising yen can impact the yen carry trade unwind in NDX. For now, this is more of a Q2-Q3 risk, but it can be market-moving like (read: July 2024 redux) this summer. Hence why June looks particular vulnerable for markets.

Have a great day & see you in the trading room!

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In this short clip from Live Trading Room (Apr 27, 2026), Samantha LaDuc explains that the market is showing signs of exhaustion after a tight, sideways week, with gains increasingly driven by a small group of mega-cap tech stocks.

She highlights a critical week ahead with major earnings from hyperscalers, Fed developments, and key macro data that could determine whether the rally continues or starts to weaken.

Overall, she notes rising risks from crowded positioning, slowing momentum, and potential selling pressure, making the current market environment more fragile.

You can engage directly with me and my fabulous team at www.laductrading.com/club/ – for all our research and trades. Or for just the daily livestreams, you can access via YouTube Memberships.

Watch on Youtube

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About my CLUB trading service

CLUB provides access to me and my team of professional macro & micro traders, analysts, and educators. CLUB is ideal for active Traders, Investors, and Institutions who want my best-of-breed market-timing calls across all asset classes and time frames, like chase, swing, and trend.

You get access to the Daily Live Trading Room with me, Slack Trading Desk with detailed analysis and trades, Custom Trade Support when you need it, and much more.

Get The Trade Before It Happens!

Sign up for CLUB today

My other services
EDGE for advanced traders and investors
CHASE for newer traders

Watch Today’s LIVE TRADING ROOM Recording…

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“Going Nowhere Fast” Is About To Change

This was my framing of the indices every day in my live trading room last week as top line markets digested outsized gains from the prior two weeks. And lo and behold, the market moved from SPX $7126 Friday April 17 close to $7165 Friday April 24 close - a mere 39 point gain.

Last week we had 15% of the S&P report earnings; this week it will be 180 companies or 36%.

Last week we had Intel’s outsized beat, surging 27% afterhours.

I gave clients $57.60 as target for 2026 last year - now $30 above. Congrats patient bulls!! INTC finally took out 2000 highs!

Given these are the four largest AI spenders of the bunch, their guidance on capital expenditures will be closely watched.

As of now, Hyperscalers’ 2026 capex estimates have been revised up 25% year-to-date - now expected to run ~$680bn, up 63% year-on-year. Any sign of worry - in AI infra spending or supply shocks from the Iran War - would be market moving.

New Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh’s confirmation path was just cleared as Senator Tillis dropped his condition that he would block the Senate hearing until DOJ ended the Powell probe. Tillis prevailed, but that does not mean that Trump won’t attempt to fire Powell in spite - as he is expected to stay on as Fed Governor after his term as Chair ends.

Economic Data For The Week Ahead:

BOJ meets Monday but is not expected to hike. But they will eventually…

Of note: Thursday morning: PCE (core 3.2% YoY, up from 3.0%) matters.

And so does Apple after hours Thursday!

War escalation is the biggest threat to giddy market bulls.

Now, let’s get into where my indicators and quant read sees the biggest risks and opportunities:

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The Floor Meets Crash Protection

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In this short clip from Live Trading Room (Apr 23, 2026), Samantha LaDuc explains that the market’s powerful rally is being driven by optimism around AI, policy expectations, and short-covering, but underlying economic signals like weak retail sales and rising oil prices suggest the foundation may not be as strong as it is.

She highlights growing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, fading mechanical buying, and crowded bullish positioning as factors that could make the rally increasingly fragile and prone to a pullback.

You can engage directly with me and my fabulous team at www.laductrading.com/club/ – for all our research and trades. Or for just the daily livestreams, you can access via YouTube Memberships.

Watch on Youtube

Share

About my CLUB trading service

CLUB provides access to me and my team of professional macro & micro traders, analysts, and educators. CLUB is ideal for active Traders, Investors, and Institutions who want my best-of-breed market-timing calls across all asset classes and time frames, like chase, swing, and trend.

You get access to the Daily Live Trading Room with me, Slack Trading Desk with detailed analysis and trades, Custom Trade Support when you need it, and much more.

Get The Trade Before It Happens!

Sign up for CLUB today

My other services
EDGE for advanced traders and investors
CHASE for newer traders

Watch Today’s LIVE TRADING ROOM Recording…

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In this short clip from Live Trading Room (Apr 22, 2026), Samantha LaDuc breaks down how markets are reacting to ongoing geopolitical tensions and a fragile ceasefire, while technical patterns suggest a near-term pullback despite continued buying pressure.

She explains that strong AI-driven earnings expectations and bullish sentiment are masking underlying economic weakness, with risks building from elevated oil prices, slowing consumer demand, and narrow market leadership.

The outlook points to a potential 15–20% correction after the current rally, as macro pressures and overly optimistic earnings projections begin to reprice.

You can engage directly with me and my fabulous team at www.laductrading.com/club/ – for all our research and trades. Or for just the daily livestreams, you can access via YouTube Memberships.

Watch on Youtube

Share

About my CLUB trading service

CLUB provides access to me and my team of professional macro & micro traders, analysts, and educators. CLUB is ideal for active Traders, Investors, and Institutions who want my best-of-breed market-timing calls across all asset classes and time frames, like chase, swing, and trend.

You get access to the Daily Live Trading Room with me, Slack Trading Desk with detailed analysis and trades, Custom Trade Support when you need it, and much more.

Get The Trade Before It Happens!

Sign up for CLUB today

My other services
EDGE for advanced traders and investors
CHASE for newer traders

Watch Today’s LIVE TRADING ROOM Recording…

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In this short clip from Live Trading Room (Apr 21, 2026), Samantha LaDuc reviews Intel and explains how a deeply undervalued stock around $22 evolved into a strong, trend-driven move that doubled and continued higher as it held key technical levels and long-term support.

She highlights the importance of patience through consolidation, the role of macro tailwinds like government-backed semiconductor investment, and why the stock remains in play despite short-term pullbacks.

The update also points to ongoing bullish positioning and option flow activity, suggesting continued upside potential toward major historical resistance levels.

You can engage directly with me and my fabulous team at www.laductrading.com/club/ – for all our research and trades. Or for just the daily livestreams, you can access via YouTube Memberships.

Watch on Youtube

Share

About my CLUB trading service

CLUB provides access to me and my team of professional macro & micro traders, analysts, and educators. CLUB is ideal for active Traders, Investors, and Institutions who want my best-of-breed market-timing calls across all asset classes and time frames, like chase, swing, and trend.

You get access to the Daily Live Trading Room with me, Slack Trading Desk with detailed analysis and trades, Custom Trade Support when you need it, and much more.

Get The Trade Before It Happens!

Sign up for CLUB today

My other services
EDGE for advanced traders and investors
CHASE for newer traders

Watch Today’s LIVE TRADING ROOM Recording…

Read more

In this short clip from Live Trading Room (Apr 20, 2026), Samantha LaDuc explains that strong Q1 earnings expectations—especially driven by tech and companies like Micron Technology—are supporting the stock market despite macro risks, helping push the S&P 500 toward highs.

She outlines how markets may grind sideways in the near term as they shift from oversold to overbought, while highlighting key technical levels traders should watch for potential pullbacks.

The broader takeaway is that even with bullish fundamentals, historical midterm-year patterns still point to a likely correction before a more sustained move higher.

You can engage directly with me and my fabulous team at www.laductrading.com/club/ – for all our research and trades. Or for just the daily livestreams, you can access via YouTube Memberships.

Watch on Youtube

Share

About my CLUB trading service

CLUB provides access to me and my team of professional macro & micro traders, analysts, and educators. CLUB is ideal for active Traders, Investors, and Institutions who want my best-of-breed market-timing calls across all asset classes and time frames, like chase, swing, and trend.

You get access to the Daily Live Trading Room with me, Slack Trading Desk with detailed analysis and trades, Custom Trade Support when you need it, and much more.

Get The Trade Before It Happens!

Sign up for CLUB today

My other services
EDGE for advanced traders and investors
CHASE for newer traders

Watch Today’s LIVE TRADING ROOM Recording…

Read more

Watch Today’s LIVE TRADING ROOM Recording…

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You probably heard… US has a Navy blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz. Yes, Competing Blockades - which has not occurred since WWII and is an Act Of War by definition.

Well, it’s pretty tough for me to get a clear read from the news feed what is true and what is not on actual vessels/owners/cargo passing through since the US blockade set up outside the SOH, but we heard Wednesday that US Admiral Cooper said forces have “completely halted” Iranian sea trade and “no ships” transited from Iranian ports yesterday.

And yet… a few accounts I follow have proof of the opposite:

On the other side (receiving end) of this argument, the Chinese navy has clearly stated that it would respond severely and immediately if Chinese ships were hindered in their international shipping.

And why the tough talk from China?

sums it up:

(US) Sanctions have gradually pushed Iran’s crude and condensate exports into a single outlet: China.

Independent analyses consistently estimate that roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports now flow to Chinese refiners a figure US government reporting corroborates directly, noting that Chinese purchases provide tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue that sustain Tehran’s budget and underwrite its military spending.

As such,

US-sanctioned tanker, Chinese-owned Rich Starry, transited through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday despite a US blockade of the vital oil chokepoint, shipping data from LSEG showed.

And for added ‘security’, China passed laws to shore up its rights of sovereignty:

China introduced rules targeting “undue extraterritorial jurisdiction” by foreign governments, expanding its ability to assess and retaliate across trade, investment, and international cooperation. via FT

Then, in response no doubt, Bessent/the Treasury Department warned banks in Oman, UAE, Hong Kong and China that the US will impose secondary sanctions which would cut off those banks from the U.S. Financial System if they transact with Iran.

Bessent was so bold as to claim in an interview that “China will no longer be able to get oil from Iran”.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the blockade is believed to have halted Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, will not renew the Russian oil waiver, and stated that two Chinese banks received Treasury letters warning of potential secondary sanctions.

All the while, the US military presence in the Middle East is building and getting its “war footing” by reaching out to US auto manufacturers to become suppliers of munitions!

While markets are screaming higher to new all-time-highs, the Trump administration also revoked the Iranian Oil Waiver that will expire APR 19. This will take an additional estimated 140 million barrels offline, so they cannot reach global markets (i.e. China).

With that buildup, how high will physical oil prices go? We do not know:

HSBC CEO: “The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, but the highest I’ve seen is $286 for a barrel of oil that reached Sri Lanka”

Back to China…

China will stop exporting sulfuric acid as of May 1st. This impacts fertilizers, batteries, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and military weapons.

And, China had already decided to flex on Panama last month:

China Tells Maersk and MSC to Withdraw from Panama Canal Ports: FT

China has ordered A.P. Moller-Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company to immediately withdraw from operating Panama Canal ports Balboa and Cristóbal, according to people familiar, after they took over from CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd.

Then this week, China is getting ready to restrict solar panels to US?!

Let’s just say, I don’t think China is done flexing. And an estimated 1.4 billion-barrel oil hoard in reserves by China means they can likely outlast Trump before the mid-terms.

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Target Isn’t Just Iran - Trump Wants China To Submit Too

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